Research shows that belief in conspiracy theories is predicted by cognitive biases that come from a reliance on mental shortcuts when processing information.

 A 2021 meta-analysis studi indicates that an intuitive thinking gaya is unrelated to intelligence. So, even really smart people could be susceptible to conspiracy beliefs - if they are more inclined to revert to faster, intuitive thinking styles.

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Research shows that belief in conspiracy theories is predicted by cognitive biases that come from a reliance on moral shortcuts when processing information. First, conspiracy beliefs seem to be predicted by the flawed belief that big evens must have big consequences.

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This is known in psychology as proportionality bias. It is difficult to accept that evens which have such world-changing consequences (for example, the death of a president or the COVID-19 outbreak) can really be caused by comparably "small" causes (for example, a lone gunman or a virus). This is how thinking styles reliant on gut feelings and intuition can lead people to endorse conspiracy theories.

Another example of intuitive thinking styles influencing conspiracy beliefs is the conjunction fallacy. A conjunction fallacy is the erroneous belief that the likelihood of two independent evens occurring together is higher than the probability of the evens occurring alone. Have a try at the Linda Permasalahan:

Research shows that belief in conspiracy theories is predicted by cognitive biases that come from a reliance on mental shortcuts when processing information.

The most probable is a) Linda is a bank teller as, statistically, the probably probability of one even occurring is always higher than the combination. However, research shows that higher conjunction fallacy errors are associated with stronger conspiracy beliefs. So people prone to conspiratorial thinking would be more likely to say b.


Exposure to conspiracy beliefs have also consistently been shown to increase people's susceptibility to them, even if they don't realise that they have had a change in belief.


It may sound concerning that anyone could be susceptible to conspiracy beliefs. However, these studies are helping researchers find interventions which can increase analytical and critical thinking styles and so buffer against susceptibility to such beliefs. A 2023 kupasan of 25 different studies found these models of interventions were a promising alat to tackle the dangerous consequences of conspiracy beliefs.


The more we understand about the psychology behind conspiracy theories, the better equipped we are to tackle them.

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